Last Week in Logistic, 24-30 March
The delay in this week’s post was to follow the breaking events in Lithuania (see below), but here we are again, reviewing the important news in logistics and logistics in the news. However, one brief aside before we turn to that, I want to note the big story of the week, SignalGate. The predominant themes of the story have revolved around the security of the information. And that is correct. But there is also a very good discussion of the logistics and administration of communications and public records to be had that the Signal story indicates, and will be a theme of a future post here. With that said, let us turn to the substance.
Lithuania
Allies and logistics, but this time it’s the Europeans coming to the aid of Americans. Tragedy, yes. But this story in different times would have unfolded as a most beautiful tribute of America’s allies to a grateful nation across the shared North Atlantic. As it stands, the story has been muted on this side, as much because of relative silence from the White House, State Department, or Defense Department as the chaos the administration is sowing in domestic politics and news. As we approach the final notes to yesterday’s denouement, the magnitude of the event and perhaps what the US is losing as it ‘unburdens’ itself of shared defense upon the European continent will reverberate and have its effect upon American security and prosperity into the future.
Coming to its sad ending on Monday with the recovery of three of four bodies of the missing soldiers, a story that has unfolded at the agonizing pace of removing the M88 from the mud of a swamp, the recovery operation in Lithuania will struggle on just a little bit longer. Four US Army soldiers and their vehicle went missing during a NATO exercise last week, and days of work to extricate them has been an unearned heroic example of allied support and assistance (article describing how Poland sent personnel to assist in the recovery operation in Lithuania - dziękuję), as well as pure logistical muscle. Draining the swamp, managing dive operations, digging out from around the M88, the work has been unstoppable. As we near the end, Lithuanian officials reported on Sunday that they are now able to attach one rope to it, and are working to add more to effectively recover the vehicle.
This episode brings out so many important facets to the logistical operation of the armed forces. First is the problem of microterrain - the minor swamped land into which the vehicle unfortunately ventured. Whether this was an obstacle know to the operators in advance, or simply an early spring affect exacerbated by the weight and likely struggle of the vehicle as it became stuck, the small details of the environment matter as much as the larger ones do. This was brought up in a discussion of German basements and tanks. My first introduction was at Gettysburg twenty years ago, when the foremost unofficial expert of the ground upon which the battle was fought, Dr. John Mountcastle, explained how the micro-terrain of Pickett’s Charge was sufficient to keep his soldiers in defilade for most of the advance. Second, is the matter of military mud. There are many types of mud, but their influence upon military operations is always the same crippling stickiness.
European Defense
As the North Atlantic relationship withers under the Trump Administration’s hostility towards its European partners, the path to decoupling their militaries’ from American arms manufacture proceeds apace. The economic component, particularly the budgeting and finance terms and conditions within the EU, is a significant hurdle (managing the rules) in advance of a bigger opportunity (greater wealth in pooled resources). (See this from Luigi Scazzieri from The Center for European Reform.) To this end, Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson proposed a defense budget to hit 3.5% of GDP by 2030.
Getting into the details, the Danish looking into expanding the capacity specifically in tanker aircraft, a key logistical node of advanced warfare in each domain. Focus here is important because these capabilities were the significant strength the US armed forces brought to the defense of Europe, and backfilling them will be critical to their autonomous self-defense.
American Logpower
With the earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand, the first political and structural failure of US logpower dominance has hit. Having destroyed the agencies and processes developed over painful experience, the American response to this humanitarian crisis is AWOL.
Meanwhile, floods hit Texas last week as the administration moved forward with its plans to eliminate FEMA. Governor Abbott has declared states of emergency, but it remains to be seen what Federal Government assistance will look like.
And the specter of dark logpower haunts the defense estate. As the Army agrees to participate in the deportation regime, border-region installations such as Ft. Bliss are eyed for detention facilities. The Vapor Trail of Tears will be ineradicable hard history for future Americans. Without proper clarity as to the current status of any policy regarding detention in Guantanamo, the flights between there, various US airports, and elsewhere, continue.
Tariffs and Trade
With Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs about to go into effect on the 2d of April, Trade expert Anna Jerzewska offers the most sobering top line: “USD 600 bn is just the cost of tariffs. The costs of economic disruption will be much higher.” Oil and Gas industry infrastructure and markets are areas of concern from industry insiders, while the auto industry is already laying off workers with forecasts of longer ownership times and Triple Decimation as production could drop by as much as 20K vehicles this year. This is matched in Wall St. analysis of the impact, with increasing likelihood of recession called by Goldman Sachs.
Forward to the Past with the prospect of impending loo roll shortages if softwood lumber tariffs with Canada go forward. Whereas COVID caused availability issues because the bifurcated market (industrial vs retail) went all askew on the demand side while production shifts lagged, this is a pure supply chain deficit. And both Canada and the EU are considering politically targeted tariffs, with Tesla and Whiskey in their crosshairs.
Meanwhile, the administration message is muddy. Kevin Hassett, White House Economic Advisory, could not say Sunday what the policy would look like, while Pete Navarro pushed the tariffs as tax cuts. Whether the auto industry raises prices on competitive brand tariff cushions, or costs from input tariffs, it’s likely that sticker shock is inbound. Responding to impending American tariffs, Canadian PM Carney is looking to improve the internal transport infrastructure necessary for trade beyond the southern border.
Ukraine War
Sweden and Ukraine sign deal for drone and demining efforts. Ukrainian industry continues to advance in domestic arms production, unveiling last week the newest addition, the Bogdana 155mm towed howitzer. EU, filling the gap of the US retrenchment from Ukraine materiel support, has committed Euro 40B in military aid for 2025, with a similar additional amount to support government operation. And the campaign against Russian oil and related infrastructure has been costly, being estimated at $680M lost over the last six months. In return, Russia continues to attack population centers, with devastation across Ukraine, to include Dnipro and Kharkiv.
The current unsteady and failing ceasefire agreement as regards the Black Sea emerged last week, suggesting the requirement for a Ukraine surrender in a theatre it has dominated for very little in return. Putin’s continuing intransigence makes the Ukrainian negotiating position look like offering something they knew they would not be long held to.
Transportation
“This is why God made executive summaries.” MTA public affairs struggle to deal with the confused and mistaken messaging from SecTrans over Congestion Pricing.
Aviation safety in the US continues to make the news, with collision warnings between civil and military aircraft over Reagan National Airport on Friday. Regulation and safety are hard won lessons, especially in a pursuit like flight. This historical review of a transport disaster involving the faulty handling of hazardous material on a Pan Am cargo flight reminds us that we dismiss these constraints to our peril.
Mass and rapid local, regional, and international transport is a glory of human achievement. But it brings risks to the careless as the movement of people exceeds the speed of medical revelation. Measles arrived in Washington on Amtrak on 19 March.
March 26th marked the first anniversary of the complex logistical disaster, the collision of a cargo ship with the Francis Scott Key Bridge and its tragic collapse. While port operations have returned, the economic impact endures as the future of the replacement remains until 2028 at the earliest.
Agriculture and Livestock
Protecting herds is not achieved by killing wolves. We seemingly must relearn this lesson generationally. Here is the most recent incarnation from National Geographic.
Cuts to federal funding are hitting farmers. In NH, uncertain and eliminated grants are hitting small farming enterprises, while also doing dual harm to famers and school children in Kentucky. More broadly, for excellent content on farming economies and issues, Sarah Taber has it for you.
Cash
The logistics of money is not often discussed. But there are great stories associated with it, from the lock boxes of yore to the loadmastering of palettes of cash for air transport. Just as global society seems on the precipice of eliminating tangible money for electronic transfers, some are questioning the resilience of the system. Last week, Sweden’s Central Banker, probably with undersea cable risk rising and the threat that poses to electrical and informational logistics in mind among other issues, cautions Swedes to hold cash reserves in the event of conflict.
Home Logistics
On Preserving. Returning to home preservation methods is good for your eating and wallet. However, these processes require sound practices, and Julia Skinner’s blog offers good resources to build one’s larder.
Old New York City buildings…the kitchen entrance for stairwell, service elevator, and trash. It’s a vintage affect with boundless charm. But the sound effects can be unsettling!
Fin
As the Trump Administration ponders the essential destruction of the postal service, we have a view to the origins of one of the nation’s oldest institutions. In Special Delivery: A History of the Post Office in New York City, “The history of the United States Postal Service as it plays out in the streets of New York City — from the first post road to the first postage stamps. From the most beautiful post office in the country to the forgotten Gilded Age landmark that was once considered the ugliest post office.” This week’s bit of history is the Bowery Boys podcast on the Post Office in New York.