Last Week in Logistics, 12-18 May
US Trade and Economy
NBC News is following grocery prices across the US. Check its tracker for your metro area. For the nation, borrowing just became more expensive as Moody’s downgraded America’s credit rating on expectations for the Trump budget’s tax cuts.
Tariffs
Bilateral trade versus investment flows are not related, according to this Brookings study.
Despite a 90-Day pause to reduced levels, the tariff dispute with China has importers under stress about how to proceed. Lifting of it is likely produce problems of its own in the short term threatening demand shocks as consumers and enterprise attempt to navigate the pause and reorient supply chains for the future. As Walmart announced price increases to match tariffs, President Trump demanded the company “eat” the costs. Of course, this just transfers the impact of the tariffs to the shareholders.
In other negotiations, there are indications that partisan business choices will help the target nation. Starlink is being pushed as a spend those governments can make to help their case, with especial pressure in African countries which have recently seen their US aid cut. According to Musk, Saudi Arabia, under the lowest tariff of the current regime, agreed last week to a deal that would see the satellite comms provider used in maritime and aviation systems.
For a review of the informal US/UK agreement, see this piece on the “General Terms”, what they answered and left unknown, by International Economics Law and Policy Blog. Beyond this informal arrangement, the Trump Administration is backing down from its 90 Deals in 90 Days promise, announcing it will unilaterally set tariffs.
German corporate capital investment in the US outpaces reciprocal activity, and is under threat as Trump’s tariffs suggest the activity is not delivering political returns.
Regulation
The elimination of the Energy Star program is a blow to manufacturers who had developed business models and product lines under this branding banner, and to consumers who had enjoyed tangible gains in efficiency and cost savings. Billed as delivering nebulous “organizational improvements to the personnel structure” without suggestion of replacement, there is no sense of what this savings will achieve beyond short term structural costs. Pruning and dismembering are different activities, and there is little indication that DOGE and the Trump Administration are doing the former as opposed to every klaxon the intention is the latter. With so much governmental activity being eliminated, the economy built around it cannot stand - and whether that transition can be happily managed is not certain.
Screw-worm eradication and mitigation programs have been slashed by the Trump Administration, which seems to favor flesh-eating maggots.
Defense and Security
Europe
Swedish Defence Materiel Administration inks new multi-year contract with BAE Systems Bofors AB for BONUS artillery grenades.
Mobility within the NATO Alliance and across Europe is a significant challenge of rationalizing national systems with interstate and security needs. Advancing their integration into the alliance, Finland with normalize its rail gauge to the regional standard, away from Russia’s.
Chatham House on European rearmament: “The goal should be that future defence spending adds up to more than the sum of its parts – and that Europe has the means to replace some US capabilities if needed. That requires joint planning, not just parallel efforts to increase national spending.” You read this recommendation here at Christmas. In this vein, UK and German defence ministries announced a joint precision missile project.
United States
FEMA is unprepared for hurricane season, with no plans in place for its new program of disaster relief in the wake of DOGE personnel and budget cuts. On Friday, the cuts to NOAA and the NWS bore fruit, as tornadoes ripped through Missouri and Kentucky with limited warning to residents. Wildfire fighting and management capacity has been decimated, too.
Supply Chains and Security
The logistical basis of conflict is never stronger than the demands of the supply chain. Returning to my days instructing on Causes of War at KCL, we are seeing an increasing concentration of violence around the rare earth minerals needed for modern technological manufacture. Of course, the importance on any given supply chain can be eliminated with adequate substitutions, as seen with this development in motors obviating the need for Chinese minerals.
Ukraine War
Mud is evergreen in war. And everything that makes a tank a ferocious combatant enhances its vulnerability to the viscous beast. While so much of defense accelerates into advanced tech, the role of the log in armored warfare endures. Enjoy this review of the practice Nordic Defense Review.
Ukraine’s Logs War - the destruction or RF support and equipment to weaken its capacity at the front - proceeds apace.
France announced the delivery of all the CAESAR self-propelled howitzers it produces in 2025 to Ukraine. Aiding the expansion of its aviation capacity, the US has opened its decommissioned F-16 inventory to Ukraine for spare parts. The domestic defense sector continues to progress, as Kyiv Post reports on a new maritime unmanned vessel: “Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) has unveiled a new sea drone with an 800-nautical-mile range and up to 7 days of operation. Satellite-controlled and resistant to jamming, it can carry 650 kg of weapons.” And the Ukrainian National Guard announced an advancement on an HMMWV-mounted MLRS system.
Transport
Newark Airport continues to struggle with tech failures and personnel deficits caused by the Trump Administration’s DOGE layoff regime. Denver also suffered its own six minute comms blackout as transmitters briefly failed.
Celebrating the anniversary of Billy Joel’s “It’s Still Rock and Roll to Me”, the line, “are you gonna cruise the Miracle Mile?” gave me pause. I grew up in that area. I have misty recollections of the grandeur of this particular stretch of road. But as models of retail changed, and as 25A became more a through-route than a “drive”, the Miracle Mile has become a mostly unremarkable series of medical centers and corporate retail with far too much space taken up by minimum parking requirements and almost no pedestrian traffic. There remains one super-premium luxury strip mall, but even that no longer impresses as a destination, the entire center and its shops are charmless and graceless. This, even as the property values of the surrounding area has skyrocketed. Prosperity is not the issue. Rather, and paradoxically, the car culture which built the dream in the first place overtook its own charm with overwhelming mass and speed.
Where communities are pushing back against the Car Monopoly, the future looks bright. Denver reduces parking minimums, freeing space to spur housing and economic development. Congestion pricing in New York City is only delivering benefits.
The Hyperloop project in Las Vegas: Boring Co. has a safety violation problem. In contrasting tech, trolley buses are making a return. Perhaps we do not need to burn a small nation’s treasure on technological fixes when old solutions can be updated to more than suffice.
The upper rigging of a Mexican navy tall ship on tour in New York collided with the Brooklyn Bridge, causing fatalities and injuries.
Enjoy this bit of Map Diplomacy from Prague, hemming in the Russian Federation embassy within political statements.
Infrastructure and Public Services
For a bit of whimsy to open it up, our friends at NEORSD remind us how laden with logistics and public service Richard Scarry’s books were.
Water
Wells and other water sources in Nigeria are in severe retreat as a result of climate change, threatening agriculture as desertification advances.
Tesla’s Corpus Christi, Texas, data center threatens to exacerbate drought conditions.
The Grid
Data centers are taking over a significant portion of grid and energy usage needs discussions. Pricing out locals by raising electricity bills by creating scarcity is one potential problem. In a brightening move, Finland is taking advantage of waste heat for housing and hot water.
The entire infrastructure-chain of power generation and delivery matters. With retail delivery by overhead wiring, modernization efforts in the PNW are stymied.
Waste Management
Its success a sine qua non for civilized societies, read this fantastic expanded review of The Idea of Waste: On the Limits of Human Life by John Scanlan.
Agriculture
Globally, soil health is faltering. New report on European and UK conditions suggests significant declines caused by intensive farming techniques. The somewhat good news here is that other models of agriculture and consumption are possible to restore the correct balances and composition of arable soil. Approaches like regenerative farming offer better paths forward.