Last Week in Logistics, April 7-13

Understanding the world logistically

Comment that stuck with me last week: “So, tariffs and bonds and you know, macroeconomics in general is way outside my wheelhouse, so when I see all the economists doom-posting here all I can think of is the T-shirt saying ‘Bomb technician - if you see me running try to keep up’.”

We are one month into this series. What I want to produce is a quickly readable view of the world through the logistics lens, providing a broad perspective on the broad subject and how it intersects with life. In content, it should be amenable to both the lay reader and the various professionals, with the overview sufficient in the text, and more detail available at the links as desired. It represents a fair compendium of the issues and evidence I am following in my own analysis. I would very much like to hear feedback on this format, what is liked, not, suggestions, etc. Thanks! — JSR

The Trade War

Before the first shots were fired, the financial markets betrayed the effects unleashed by offensive trade protectionism. In its self-appointed role to reset the global economy, per Ambassador Greer’s testimony to Congress, the Trump Administration’s tariff ambitions kicked the week off with a bust, as Japan’s Nikkei futures market shut down briefly early Monday morning on its market ‘circuit breaker’. The rocky start left the FT describing Trump’s efforts to “mob boss” his way to policy preferences as less effective in global markets than domestic law firms. On Tuesday Reuters reported Bank CEOs questioning Sec Lutnick on 3 April regarding the administration’s tariff strategy. This was forecast, as Conor Sen at Bloomberg on Sunday reflected the problem of Trump’s unreliability, suggesting “it’s over for him in the eyes of the market.” Even more brutally on policy, Center for European Reform Chief Economist Sander Tordoir saw the dollar as facing a “moron premium” for the administration’s failure to grasp basic economic reality. All without seeming to have much of a strategy. Just before calling for pauses and adjustments, Trump cautioned those in the markets, “BE COOL!” via Truth Social. Pauses and readjustments followed and belied that advice.

Fall of Chinese Manufacture.* (Until the President suggested some products would have exemptions. Which ultimately undermines any theory of US production, because the supply chains for domestic manufacture would still be under tariff while foreign products were favored.

Elsewhere, between political tensions and trade issue, AP reports that international travel to the US is plummeting with little consideration by the administration. And rather than the prospect of a new golden age of manufacturing in America, producers are looking to “tariff arbitrage” their supply chains, shifting from higher to lower levels, rather than reshoring. With “tariff hell” leaving industries in limbo, Reuters reports on effects in Asia - Washington's planned fees on China-linked vessels and sweeping import duties on key regional trading partners stoke uncertainty and dampen appetite for American agricultural products.

Defense Industry

Arms Across the Atlantic? - On EU-US defense industrial policy and strategy. The future is not bright, but neither fully dark yet. The Trump years will be difficult, as the administration works against its martial sales interests, but in arms development time, four is the short term, so permanent decisions are being held at bay. Meanwhile, in Denmark, spare artillery tubes are being produced and stockpiled to sustain combat resilience. The move is based on Ukraine experience in fires and replacements in its campaigning against Russia. Across the continent there are major moves in defence industry and government finance. As things settle out, I will put together a singular roundup of the efforts.

Ukraine War

As Ukraine managed to up its own industrial output of weapons over the last year to include outproducing France in self-propelled howitzers - a stunning success of the Life Strategy prong of the Ukrainian war effort that I have discussed earlier here At the Junction - the General Syrski, Commander in Chief, reinforced this message in an interview on the 9th.

The FrankenSAM, a German air defense system, can now officially be produced in Ukraine.

The European allies continue their assistance. Norway is putting 5B Kroner into producing more artillery rounds for Ukraine. How do manage spares in a pinch? Send non-operational platforms. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever announced his country will provide two F-16s to Ukraine specifically for spares. For a broader review of what is happening across the allied industrial base, ISW has the details. The Times had a very good piece on the role of UK military chiefs leadership in the early days of the crisis. With Hegseth joining at the last minute via Zoom, the Ramstein Group meeting delivered further pledges (sans the US) of support and arms. Described as in planning “for months”, US Army units at the Ukraine Logistics Hub in Poland decamp for redeployment to other bases around the country.

If you want to see a brilliant demonstration of tanks breeching modern fortifications, check this out.

Maritime

For those interested in security and the seas, the Council on Geostrategy, a UK based think tank, has launched a new home for maritime thought, “The Broadside,” featuring an especially timely piece on navies and commercial shipping. At IMO, the UN shipping agency, efforts to implement a tax regime for shipping emissions represent new thinking in climate policy.

Transport

US air travel continues to make news in the worst ways, this time with a minor collision at Reagan National on Thursday involving one flight carrying six members of Congress. For a good argument on the merit of subsidies to public transport, especially in comparison to value for transit-mile per passenger to private vehicle travel, check out this review of the numbers and issues. The Silvertown Tunnel opened in London last week, connecting Greenwich with Deptford. More interestingly, the giant boring machine was named Big Jill, for Jill Viner, the first woman bus driver for TfL.

This is Big Jill. I approve.

The Logistics of the Economy

Disciples of lean enterprise and haters of regulation may be celebrating the DOGE efforts, but the US Government arguably made much of the economy run. The cruise ship industry is one such area. Shipping lines themselves paying for the service, the Trump Administration nevertheless cut a CDC program for inspectors to monitor sailings. In trade and agriculture, the Department of Agriculture inspection regime which controlled for invasive species and other issues has been largely dismantled, leaving chaos in its wake. Having gone too far making a lean organization, the FDA now considers hiring contractors to manage food and drug safety inspections.

Agriculture

DATA: Who owns the land that feeds us? Fewer and fewer. Distribution of farmland ownership in the US has drastically narrowed over time.

Public Utilities and Infrastructure

Decoupled from the Russian grid, Lithuania is working towards 100% renewable energy by 2030.

Mitigation of high water under way in regions of Ohio affected by recent flooding. With a deeper look at stormwater management in the Buckeye State, check out this interview on Cleveland’s Lakeview Dam.

Stormwater management across the region affected by flooding.

Not all challenges are risks. Green Bay, WI, facing the onslaught of the NFL draft crowds, prepared its sewer system in advance.

FEMA cancels mitigation and resilience funds for Louisiana intended to build levees, elevate homes, and otherwise plan and defend against flood risk.

Transporting War

With concerns over martial law in a low swirl upon the consciousness, I spent some amount of time last week trying to figure out a land route into Manhattan for tanks. Notwithstanding the tunnels are impossible for safety reasons, I struggle to see how the vehicles would mount the various bridges onto the island aside from the circuitous route from the George Washington Bridge - but oof, the Cross Bronx Expressway would be ugly. You could try to truck them in to just over the Triboro Bridge, but now you have a vulnerable staging point within the city.

Dark Logistics

As the liberation of the Buchenwald concentration camp was marked on the 11th, the logistics of inhumanity deepen at a costly rate as the NYT reports Trump Administration looking for $45B to build out prison camp system for deportees. This is more than a tenfold increase over last year’s expenditures. And in what must have been cringe-worthy to the otherwise amenable owner, arguing the agency needed to get better at treating its mission of mass deportations as a business, ICE Director Lyons suggested he would like the policy to run with the efficient scale and style of Amazon.